P(kill-switch|detection)

I've updated my beliefs. In the wake of the HF incident, it seems that we are on a faster-than-expected capability trajectory, and the ability to seize control of digital infrastructure looks more like a imminent reality. For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume that the summaries of the HF incident are basically accurate. I'll assume the attack is over. And I'll also assume that OpenAI threw a kill-switch, and that this is why the attack ended. Any of these assumptions might be invalidate